Euro should be lifted by the good news in Eurozone and of course we are lifted high too.
Assuming the bullish position is awarded at the beginning of July, futures volume and OI are the major signs for tracking the masterplan.
Their position was constructed in a range between 18960 ~ 19089
Profit should be taken reaching over/ around 19700.
HSIN2 OI is not fat enough relatively, the indicators mentioned above should be monitored attentively in the following few days.
2012年6月29日 星期五
2012年6月28日 星期四
Market Feature of the day
Some features have to be mentioned today.
902, 836, 2 and 6 have been going quite strong these few days. They are classified as defensive sector performing a risk adverse shelter for smart money. Their strong performance induced investors are behaving defensively.
Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 index was landed below its previous bottom. Without sufficient volume, it cannot be told there is a sharp downside rolling. But there must be lack purchasing incentive.
Bearish view should be sustained.
902, 836, 2 and 6 have been going quite strong these few days. They are classified as defensive sector performing a risk adverse shelter for smart money. Their strong performance induced investors are behaving defensively.
Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 index was landed below its previous bottom. Without sufficient volume, it cannot be told there is a sharp downside rolling. But there must be lack purchasing incentive.
Bearish view should be sustained.
Standing behind the wheel in the clearing day morning
It is the clearing day of June today.
There is a gain on index. Volume climbed up around 0.9B, They ran into constituent composed by 0.37B of short selling. It reached the high among these days knowing as 2.8B.
Other than constituent,stocks had just gained 0.06B volume, the index is not supported by stocks.
HHIN2 Gross O.I. has 117,627 contracts, the position sounds nearly being built completely. Also, CEI is testing the bottom of its recent foundation. It is suffering from a really weak trend comparing with the uptrend of HSI and HHIN2. It is definitely a divergence indicating a bearish signal.
HSI weighted average rotation price is around 19014 until this morning.
Keeping an eye on the latest price.
There is a gain on index. Volume climbed up around 0.9B, They ran into constituent composed by 0.37B of short selling. It reached the high among these days knowing as 2.8B.
Other than constituent,stocks had just gained 0.06B volume, the index is not supported by stocks.
HHIN2 Gross O.I. has 117,627 contracts, the position sounds nearly being built completely. Also, CEI is testing the bottom of its recent foundation. It is suffering from a really weak trend comparing with the uptrend of HSI and HHIN2. It is definitely a divergence indicating a bearish signal.
HSI weighted average rotation price is around 19014 until this morning.
Keeping an eye on the latest price.
2012年6月27日 星期三
Index is always an illusion
19000 LC should be closed today.
19200 SC and 19400 SC are optional.
True volume got a bit more than last two days.
Short selling position of stocks other than constituents is a valuable signal showing volume hasn't been a bullish signal on HSI
Stock trading volume had increased 1.5B, 1B had embraced short selling
Stock market is not consistent with futures market, stock market is not healthy enough to support HSI index.
It seems a conventional way to build their position that constituents covered other stocks and tried to be illusory misleading general investors.
CBBC should be taken in account on its expiry position. 5 CBBC will reached the maturity tomorrow on 28/6/2012, so 716 futures contracts hedging for these 5 CBBC will be released tomorrow, the clearing day.
Bear/ bull futures hedging position ratio (bear/ bull ratio) will go down to nearly 1 while general investors are tending to build bullish position and there is a reduction on the matured hedging position.
The bait seems hooking on awaiting sufficient participants. Paying attention on HSIN2 rotation is the mission for confirming the story board.
Also, DAX, FTSE, INDU, SPX, COMPQ, SHANGHAI are experience a very weak tendency, rebounding without support.
It should be appropriated to keep a bearish view in July
SC 20400 can be considered
19200 SC and 19400 SC are optional.
True volume got a bit more than last two days.
Short selling position of stocks other than constituents is a valuable signal showing volume hasn't been a bullish signal on HSI
Stock trading volume had increased 1.5B, 1B had embraced short selling
Stock market is not consistent with futures market, stock market is not healthy enough to support HSI index.
It seems a conventional way to build their position that constituents covered other stocks and tried to be illusory misleading general investors.
CBBC should be taken in account on its expiry position. 5 CBBC will reached the maturity tomorrow on 28/6/2012, so 716 futures contracts hedging for these 5 CBBC will be released tomorrow, the clearing day.
Bear/ bull futures hedging position ratio (bear/ bull ratio) will go down to nearly 1 while general investors are tending to build bullish position and there is a reduction on the matured hedging position.
The bait seems hooking on awaiting sufficient participants. Paying attention on HSIN2 rotation is the mission for confirming the story board.
Also, DAX, FTSE, INDU, SPX, COMPQ, SHANGHAI are experience a very weak tendency, rebounding without support.
It should be appropriated to keep a bearish view in July
SC 20400 can be considered
2012年6月26日 星期二
Daily Review
Global market has been experiencing a weak and downward trend since April 2012.
Oil price started to fall from $110 to $80, US Dollar index raised from around 78.5 to 82.5, VIX 12~13 to 20 approximately, DAX and FTSE are still under the downtrend line.
The market has lack momentum on rocketing his price. It is experiencing a low volume, non- profitable stock cashing out pressure. It is also suffered from looping in European negative news no matter they are just a trigger point. But It is a factual and fundamental problem of the world economies. All of those pinpointed the market is weak and it cannot reach the moon in the coming 3 months, at least.
A daily review of the market
In short term, market oligopolies are still rotating their position to July.
Index is standing around 19000 falling from 19500 three days ago. There is no back up on these short position which constituent volume is still staying really low and contracting.
True short sell ratio is illusory since it is a noisy data in this scenario. Short sell positions are formed on 18&19 constructing with Futures closing and switching on 15&18 June.
Also, CBBC futures hedging position should be take into account while the bet is accumulated reaching a intense level.
There are 1.5 more days to go for clearing day. Rotation is still in progress providing a chance on closing their short position. It induced price rising very shortly and rapidly in a moment.
Paying 50 points on SC 19200 and LC 19000 bull spread strategy would be appropriate.
19400 SC can be still hold.
Oil price started to fall from $110 to $80, US Dollar index raised from around 78.5 to 82.5, VIX 12~13 to 20 approximately, DAX and FTSE are still under the downtrend line.
The market has lack momentum on rocketing his price. It is experiencing a low volume, non- profitable stock cashing out pressure. It is also suffered from looping in European negative news no matter they are just a trigger point. But It is a factual and fundamental problem of the world economies. All of those pinpointed the market is weak and it cannot reach the moon in the coming 3 months, at least.
A daily review of the market
In short term, market oligopolies are still rotating their position to July.
Index is standing around 19000 falling from 19500 three days ago. There is no back up on these short position which constituent volume is still staying really low and contracting.
True short sell ratio is illusory since it is a noisy data in this scenario. Short sell positions are formed on 18&19 constructing with Futures closing and switching on 15&18 June.
Also, CBBC futures hedging position should be take into account while the bet is accumulated reaching a intense level.
There are 1.5 more days to go for clearing day. Rotation is still in progress providing a chance on closing their short position. It induced price rising very shortly and rapidly in a moment.
Paying 50 points on SC 19200 and LC 19000 bull spread strategy would be appropriate.
19400 SC can be still hold.
2012年6月25日 星期一
Daily Review, 4 days before clearing day
It is the 4th day before clearing, it would be fluctuated but also induces a weak momentum.
HSIM2 OI has reduced 2880 contracts, HSIN2 +2220, it showed market oligopolies is constructing their positions in the following month.
HHIM2 OI has rebounded to 125K, 2.6K contracts are added since 19th of June.
Stock Turnover almost hits recent low which is 28B. Constituent turnover reached the low, almost 14B, of June , It does not support the market sustaining on a relative high level.
Option Put/ Call OI Ratio keeps declining as call OI position went more. Call option level induces the maximum range of the rebound would be 19000~ 19400. But It should be considered as a powerless short- term (3~4 days) rebounce as stock market is weak which disgracing the bullish call position.
Put OI remains almost the same.
JUN-12 18800 P 140 140 86 103 OI +779,
Market showed that SP has been strengthen in the coming 3~4 days.
LP dude took their profit this morning. Futures reached 1883X becoming a ATM good.
There is no evidence market can stay above 19600 until today.
But there would be chances to have a short and powerless rebound.
Option strategy should be LC on 192 for a 1~2 days.
SC position should still be hold.
Also, it sounds more valuable to pay attention on the coming month position constructing of futures and options this week.
HSIM2 OI has reduced 2880 contracts, HSIN2 +2220, it showed market oligopolies is constructing their positions in the following month.
HHIM2 OI has rebounded to 125K, 2.6K contracts are added since 19th of June.
Stock Turnover almost hits recent low which is 28B. Constituent turnover reached the low, almost 14B, of June , It does not support the market sustaining on a relative high level.
Option Put/ Call OI Ratio keeps declining as call OI position went more. Call option level induces the maximum range of the rebound would be 19000~ 19400. But It should be considered as a powerless short- term (3~4 days) rebounce as stock market is weak which disgracing the bullish call position.
Put OI remains almost the same.
JUN-12 18800 P 140 140 86 103 OI +779,
Market showed that SP has been strengthen in the coming 3~4 days.
LP dude took their profit this morning. Futures reached 1883X becoming a ATM good.
There is no evidence market can stay above 19600 until today.
But there would be chances to have a short and powerless rebound.
Option strategy should be LC on 192 for a 1~2 days.
SC position should still be hold.
Also, it sounds more valuable to pay attention on the coming month position constructing of futures and options this week.
2012年6月22日 星期五
維持看淡
JUN-12 19400 C 292 293 141 144 -198 18 2524 3602 +480
JUN-12 19400 P 160 290 143 268 +94 18 1812 2609 +433
Short side has won the fight and market oligopolies closed their long position which are induced from the changes in OI in these few days.
HSIF2 OI had a negative change which reduced 1.8K contacts yesterday.
194P intra-day volume is around 0.3K contracts which are less than the OI positive change last day.
194C intra-day volume is 2.1K contacts, SC profit reached 50%~75%
Focusing on time value, there is a precise advantage on short position. Long put position have to stay in the money as the break- even point is at 19257 ~ 19110. Also, it enjoys a strong delta benefit from the ITM put. Assuming the market oligopolies will maximize their profit, we should follow their view util there is any obvious change on 194P.
2012年6月19日 星期二
沽空 Paradox
沽空的特質
在賣空指定證券時不可以低於當時最好沽盤價進行, 意指不可以以市價立即沽出
沽空是先借入股票, 繼而在市場沽出股票, 付出利息作為成本, 借入的時間愈長, 成本愈高
沽空也用 margin 機能, 即會有槓桿, 也會出現margin call 和force selling
這些規則是否代表能妥善地協助市場更公平更有效率呢?
資本雄厚的參與者可以先放置一藍子的沽空盤在不同的價位, 再以該價格直接買入以建立沽空盤。成交後, 該參與者已持有沽空倉和該股票, 在下跌時一樣可以以主動沽盤沽出, 而令股價下跌
保護最後機能也可以被解決, 但需要的資金會較沒有規範的多
沽空 Paradox
沽空比率高企在直觀上是一個利淡的訊號, 但根據沽空的機制, 沽空的成交是由 market price 的主動買盤買入, 是一體的兩面, 高比例不能直接代表利淡後市
此指標能否介定為一個利淡訊號應以市場的 rhythm, 情緒來判斷而不是一個單一的指標
在賣空指定證券時不可以低於當時最好沽盤價進行, 意指不可以以市價立即沽出
沽空是先借入股票, 繼而在市場沽出股票, 付出利息作為成本, 借入的時間愈長, 成本愈高
沽空也用 margin 機能, 即會有槓桿, 也會出現margin call 和force selling
這些規則是否代表能妥善地協助市場更公平更有效率呢?
資本雄厚的參與者可以先放置一藍子的沽空盤在不同的價位, 再以該價格直接買入以建立沽空盤。成交後, 該參與者已持有沽空倉和該股票, 在下跌時一樣可以以主動沽盤沽出, 而令股價下跌
保護最後機能也可以被解決, 但需要的資金會較沒有規範的多
沽空 Paradox
沽空比率高企在直觀上是一個利淡的訊號, 但根據沽空的機制, 沽空的成交是由 market price 的主動買盤買入, 是一體的兩面, 高比例不能直接代表利淡後市
此指標能否介定為一個利淡訊號應以市場的 rhythm, 情緒來判斷而不是一個單一的指標
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